Yet another blow to European pride originating in the Balkans.
Huge withdrawals from Spanish and Italian banks
That is an understatement. Who would keep their money in an Arkansas bank for a split second when they had good reason to think that Arkansas would soon leave the US and go off the USD and start printing its own currency?
3a-3b
You can just write "rioting and civil unrest" or "parade of horribles" here. Dogs and cats, living together, mass hysteria.
Accept huge indirect public claims on Italy and Spain
Without a fundamentally restructured EU this ain't gonna happen. If it does the Germans will go down in history as the single most generous nation in history. That whole unpleasant business from 1914-1945 will officially be history. But they won't. How can they? Spain is not Greece, and Italy (ITALY!) is not Spain. There aren't enough printing presses or paper in all of Germany to print the Euros necessary. And then who will buy them?
4b. End of the euro.
I still doubt it. It should happen, the EU is an unholy mess cobbled together with cement made solely from the good will of the German taxpayer. Indeed, I want it to happen, for the good of the world economy. But I think the psychic consequences of seeing yet another Grand Illusion tumble before base, crud, ugly reality will be something the Euro Faithful in Paris, Brussels and Berlin will move heaven and earth to avoid. They shouldn't, but admitting this whole thing was a monumental waste of time in search of a solution to something that wasn't a problem... it is just... hard to imagine.
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Date: 24/5/12 19:44 (UTC)Yet another blow to European pride originating in the Balkans.
Huge withdrawals from Spanish and Italian banks
That is an understatement. Who would keep their money in an Arkansas bank for a split second when they had good reason to think that Arkansas would soon leave the US and go off the USD and start printing its own currency?
3a-3b
You can just write "rioting and civil unrest" or "parade of horribles" here. Dogs and cats, living together, mass hysteria.
Accept huge indirect public claims on Italy and Spain
Without a fundamentally restructured EU this ain't gonna happen. If it does the Germans will go down in history as the single most generous nation in history. That whole unpleasant business from 1914-1945 will officially be history. But they won't. How can they? Spain is not Greece, and Italy (ITALY!) is not Spain. There aren't enough printing presses or paper in all of Germany to print the Euros necessary. And then who will buy them?
4b. End of the euro.
I still doubt it. It should happen, the EU is an unholy mess cobbled together with cement made solely from the good will of the German taxpayer. Indeed, I want it to happen, for the good of the world economy. But I think the psychic consequences of seeing yet another Grand Illusion tumble before base, crud, ugly reality will be something the Euro Faithful in Paris, Brussels and Berlin will move heaven and earth to avoid. They shouldn't, but admitting this whole thing was a monumental waste of time in search of a solution to something that wasn't a problem... it is just... hard to imagine.