Health Care Reform at the Supreme Court

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

I'm both surprised and unsurprised that the three days of arguments regarding the health care bill at the Supreme Court have not made their way here yet. If you haven't paid much attention, the Wall Street Journal liveblogged the proceedings for each day:

* Day One, focusing on whether the enforcement mechanism for the mandate was a tax or a penalty, which matters because if it's a tax, the law cannot be legally challenged until 2014.

* Day Two, the big day of the three, which talked about the Constitutionality of the mandate itself.

* Day Three, which discussed whether the mandate was severable from the rest of the law, and about the Medicaid expansion that was forced onto the states by the bill.

It's near-impossible to truly project what is going to happen based on oral arguments, but even left wing commentators like Toobin appear resigned to the possibility that the mandate will be struck down, and the arguments coming from the bench definitely put the entire law on the ropes. A lot will depend on the deliberations in the back, and definitely depend on who ends up writing the opinion, but opponents of the bill appear to have reason for some very cautious optimism about the last few days in the Supreme Court.

Comments

[hikarugenji.livejournal.com]

very cautious optimism

Because nothing spells optimism like people dying because they don't have enough money to pay for their health care.

Don't be bothered by me, I'm practicing how to attack a good concept by putting a man's name to it

[rick-day.livejournal.com]

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[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

Much better to have them buy health insurance they're not using and can't afford, right?

[gunslnger.livejournal.com]

people dying because they don't have enough money to pay for their health care.

The problem is that that is so general of a platitude that it's essentially worthless.

[acethepug.livejournal.com]

Day Three seems superfluous to me insofar as the mandate being severable, although I admit I could be misunderstanding something.

There was no severability clause in the Health Care Bill, was there? I thought I read that, with the death of Ted Kennedy, the Dems no longer had the bulletproof majority they needed to amend the bill, so it ultimately went through without one.

If that's true, doesn't the whole thing get tossed if the Supreme Court finds the mandate unconstitutional? I mean, isn't that why there is a severability clause in the first place?

Thanks for posting.

[merig00.livejournal.com]

I think when there's no clause it's up to the court to decide. But I might be wrong.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

There was no severability clause, but that doesn't mean the court can't try and sever it anyway, unfortunately. It's hard to say if they'll go that far - a few justices seemed offended at even the idea of having to figure it out for themselves, which is never a good sign for the bill, but, again, there's only so much telegraphing one can do.

[hardblue.livejournal.com]

If 'universal health care' proponents have to go back to the drawing board, I suppose it will have to be 'medicare for all'.

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

Honestly, they're pushing towards universal health care in a way they'd hate even more than this. Republicans have yet to put forward a plan that actually contains costs to a significant degree, or gets more people covered. So far, we've got opening cross-border competition (which might slightly lower insurance prices), reducing tort claims (which will slightly reduce unnecessary preventative care) and reducing government regulation of the insurance market. No fix for preexisting conditions, no fix for the increasing costs of actual services, no increased ability for the poor to get insurance. If not the mandate, then liberals are left with only an NHS-style program.

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

The only prediction I am willing to make from the oral arguments is that Roberts and Kennedy are very interested in giving the impression of doing their due diligence regardless of how they will vote.

Oral arguments are the most superfluous part of the process but they exist in a form that lets the pubic SEE the justices thinking out loud.

[rick-day.livejournal.com]

....which is why SCOTUS will not be televised. It's not a goddamn reality show and only about 900 people have the real knowledge about what the fuck they are talking about.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

Well, hear them think. Eventually. When they decide to release the tapes.

I still don't know why we give anyone a say over cameras in the courtroom. We really, really need that.

[rick-day.livejournal.com]

I hope it is overturned.

Then, the GOP/MAdison Ave cabal will have to find some other smearing term other than "Obamacare".

I'm fucking sick of the word. Go ahead. Kill the 'bad' law to score political points.

The month after it is overturned, people will start to die from a lack of healthcare.

*golfclap* Wellllll played, Haters of Obama.

Me? I got all the health insurance I need. The rest of you conservatives who make under $200k can die in the dust, for all this rich liberal cares.

Enjoy the victory dance, while you can still walk.

[policraticus.livejournal.com]

The month after it is overturned, people will start to die from a lack of healthcare.

I wasn't aware that people had ever stopped dying from a lack of healthcare.

[gunslnger.livejournal.com]

I don't need better/more health insurance, I just need doctors to tell me what they're actually going to bill me, in advance.

[devil-ad-vocate.livejournal.com]

I don't understand. I thought - way back when - we were ALL talking about how to reduce the outrageous cost of medical care in this country? Did that somehow get lost in the political shuffle?

[kylinrouge.livejournal.com]

The GOP has a plan for reducing medical costs.

It may or may not include all the poor people dying so we don't have to take care of them.

[existentme.livejournal.com]

I'm getting a kick out of the idea that I read somewhere else that they may strike it down just to put the executive branch on notice with regard its usurpation of powers - the writer's snark being more or less at "let the usurpers know who gets to do the usurping," or something of that nature.

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

I sincerely doubt that SCOTUS does anything solely to put the executive "on notice" about anything other than what they consider violations of the law.

[crystallinegirl.livejournal.com]

Yet another reason to move to Sweden...

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

Ya know, there's always a smörgåsbord prepared for ya somewhere around here.

[kylinrouge.livejournal.com]

I wonder if they mentioned the fact that if they cut the mandate but keep the no preexisting conditions, people can just wait until they get sick before getting any, which raises premiums for everyone. Romney mentioned this, the irony lost on him that the solution is to make health care universal.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

I believe it came up as a concern about a death spiral for insurers that wasn't intended by the law. It's probably one of the stronger arguments for non-severability outside of the lack of the explicit clause.

Romney mentioned this, the irony lost on him that the solution is to make health care universal.

Or to lessen the onerous regulations on insurers.

[dwer.livejournal.com]

There's no way this ends well for conservatives. Either the law passes (as it should), or it doesn't, and the GOP has to deal with a presidential campaign that asks Mitt Romney 1) Why he was so against a program so similar to the one he created in Mass, and 2) Why he's ok with going back to the days when a health insurance company can take your money and refuse to pay for your care.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

1) Why he was so against a program so similar to the one he created in Mass

All he has to do is say "it's not Constitutional when the federal government does it." Because it isn't. It's an easy answer, and one conservatives have been making for some time now. Which is why we're even having this discussion.

2) Why he's ok with going back to the days when a health insurance company can take your money and refuse to pay for your care.

He may say he's not in favor of it, and that as President, he'll find better ways to handle it than the President that couldn't construct a plan that passed Constitutional muster. Or he can say "I'm not on the Supreme Court." Or he can say "I'm not the President."

This works out great for the Republicans, as it validates their concerns about the bill, confirms the worst of Obama, and takes away his hallmark legislation. The only way this ends poorly for conservatives and Republicans is if Kennedy upholds the whole thing.

[vnsplshr.livejournal.com]

Here's hoping the law goes to the grave, and instead of a 2700 page law... we get a hundred 27 pages laws that people will/can read and understand to get health care fixed.

[rimpala.livejournal.com]

Well, it's up to the Court...

[yes-justice.livejournal.com]

Yay! Then those rotten kids wont have coverage and pre-existing conditions will still fuck people.

YAY!

[meus-ovatio.livejournal.com]

Well I'm already preparing to be fucked over, royally. Wife already can't get insurance and we have to wait till 2014. Get's overturned and she's straight fucked, and you do not fuck with my wife and act like a gentleman while doing it and expect to get anywhere.

I'll file it under "give the banks 7.7 trillion dollars and fuck me over".

[gunslnger.livejournal.com]

Glad to hear you're on board with the revolution.

[mrbogey.livejournal.com]

The annoying thing about it when it gets overturned will be the countless supporters of the bill who gave crappy arguments for years in support of the bill will ignore how the USSC just called them idiots.

They'll just keep making the same flawed arguments and not slip a single step.

The Solicitor General Obama sent isn't an idiot. He has trouble forming an argument. That says a lot.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

To be fair, he had to defend the indefensible.