What gives with Ukraine's weapons anaemia?

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

The Ukrainian political elite seems to be backing the request of president Petro Poroshenko for arms supplies from abroad. I'm not talking of tanks of course, but mostly modern communication and radar technology. However, Ukraine also needs armor-piercing weapons, as well as anti-air missiles. All in all, it seems Kiev can't do jack shit on the battlefield without the "deadly weapons" that we've heard being discussed lately.

The ongoing discussion in the US about the possible arms supplies has certainly increased the appetites in Kiev, although president Obama is still hesitating, and for a reason. In principle, German chancellor Angela Merkel is opposed to arms supplies to Ukraine, as that would further escalate the conflict - especially now that a fragile truce has been negotiated. After Germany's categorical rejection to supply arms, the focus has now been shifted on the Ukrainian arms producers. The question is, why are the large weapons factories in Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk so incapable of supplying the Ukrainian army with Ukraine-produced weapons? We're talking of arms factories that have been well known ever since Soviet times. The problem there is, most of them are facing bankruptcy, and Ukraine desperately needs investments in the arms industry, and a modernization of its management practices.

Of course, we shouldn't completely write off the Ukrainian arms industry just yet. There are still ample production facilities around the country. But then why are the arms factories in Ukraine not delivering weapons for the Ukrainian military, even if these are a bit out of date? That question has been put by lots of MPs at the Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, and by representatives of the ministry of defense. A bit later next week the national security committee will be holding hearings of Stepan Poltorak, the fourth defense minister in a row for the last year. And there are increasing signals coming from Kiev that the ministry of defense has done some crucial management mistakes.

There's a suspicion among the observers that the ministry of defense itself is sabotaging the country's military industrial complex. It's not like Ukraine doesn't have a significant production potential, one that could probably provide the bulk of the needed weapons if managed properly. So far Ukraine has mostly been exporting arms, granted, but now that the country desperately needs them, the conclusion is that the ministry and high command has failed to respond to the new realities by adjusting their policy to the needs of the military. They're just failing to commission the producers with the production of the weapons they need. Which is absurd, when you think of it. It's either deliberate sabotage, or staggering incompetence, or mere corruption. Turns out, the top officers and the government representatives are pursuing their own interests and are so corrupt that they're undermining their own country's fighting capabilities, and they're not giving a damn about it.

One of Ukraine's biggest problems has long been the lack of loyalty. Ukraine is now in a delicate moment, in a transition period. For more than two decades the Russian secret services had been using every opportunity to infiltrate the Ukrainian institutions, which is why all military-related officials should probably go through a thorough vetting process, if the Ukrainians really want to clean up their house. And I'm not just talking about the chiefs of staff and the ministry of defense, but also all the parts of the cabinet which are even remotely related to the military industry, and are now blocking certain policies and decisions in one way or another. That's the only way to achieve clarity about who works for whom and which interests are being propped up, and why isn't the whole system working as it's supposed to.

Last week the Ukrainian secret services arrested a top officer from the chiefs of staff, who had been leaking the positions of the Ukrainian army to representatives of the rebel Donetsk and Lugansk "People's Republics". That's probably a good start. And if Ukraine manages to further tighten its internal security and adjust its otherwise big military industrial complex in a relatively adequate manner, the US wouldn't have to go through all that delicate stuff with the arms supplies, which could be interpreted as an act of aggression by the increasingly paranoid Russians.

Comments

[merig00.livejournal.com]

Yeap. That's why a lot of people in Ukraine against the supply of weapons from the West. No weapon will win the war if your command is incompetent, afraid to take responsibility or outright sabotaging and stealing.

The issue is for 23 years the army was in business of selling and stealing so most of the system is not set up to actually command and fight.

[cypukambl.livejournal.com]

To begin with, Ukraine had a very good start in 1991. There were sixteen military districts in USSR, three of which were located in Ukraine. And those were the most developed and well supplied districts. 1/5 of all Soviet weapons was left in independent Ukraine. Then the Capitalism has begun. Remember who is Victor Bout? I guess, not. But it was him who was portrayed by Nicolas Cage as Yuri Orlov in Lord of War. An enormous amount of Ukrainian Soviet arms was squandered. But even selling arms with FTL speed wasn`t enough to sell everything before it turned out that Ukraine needed those tanks and guns for it`s own purposes. Constructing new tanks? Yes. But there was an interesting episode, that explains a lot. Ukraine was to sell some four hundred BTR-4E Bucephalus to Iraq. It tried to, at least three times, but Iraq (!!!) wasn`t satisfied with quality. And the last lot has returned to Ukraine just in time to be partly destroyed, partly captured under Ilovaisk in August-September, 2014. You are also talking about Russian agents in Ukraine. What do you call an agent? A person, that acts in Russian interest? Yes. There are millions of them in Ukraine. Relatives, spouses, co-eds, friends... Some spare parts for Kharkiv and Dniepropetrivsk tank factories were made in Russia, some spare parts for Russian ICBMs were made in Dniepropetrivsk. Untill summer 2014 (We`re talkin` `bout Ukrainian Euro-integration, heh?). And Europeans will have to make a note to themselves: when Ukraine asks for something, it already conciders the thing it`s own and feels a bitter resentment if doesn`t get it (gas price discounts, visa-free regime with EU, you name it). You MUST give what Ukraine wants and Ukraine will concider later if it will pay for it.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Here's a heretical thought. If Ukraine hadn't quit its nuclear arsenal about 23 years ago, now Russia wouldn't be so bold. A Ukraine without nukes is like an open back-door. Iran may've taken the lesson quite a while ago, and Israel certainly did, too.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Ukraine is the classic state that looks big and intimidating on a map but collapses when the rotten structure is given that single solid kick. Its sole saving grace is that the people aiming to give it that kick, the Russians, are about on par with it for inability to get things right the first time or even the second.