ext_36450 ([identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com) wrote in [community profile] talkpolitics2014-03-01 09:21 am

Now the Long Knives are poised right in the back of Ukraine:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400035

Fucking brilliant approach, this. First the attempt to play divide and conquer in Ukraine pretty transparently crashed and burned with the retun of Ukraine's Benazir Bhutto to political influence. Then, the Russians decide evidently that they really did move in Russian Army soldiers into the Crimea. Because the proper instinct when a risky gamble fails is to raise the stakes. This is not going to end well by any means. Now I'm wondering how long Lucashenko will have a country to rule as dictator, and what might happen with Round II with Georgia. If Tsar Vladimir I of the House of Putin succeeds in this kind of thing, that will only encourage him to expand his wars of aggression further because Ukraine is rather larger than Georgia, and this would permit Russia to begin aspiring to regain aspects of the old Tsarist boundaries. I sincerely expected Russia would use Central Asia for this kind of thing, not Ukraine.

The EU wouldn't give a damn about invading Muslims in Kazakhstan, but invading an EU state? That's not going to lead Russia to do anything but decide to engage in still-larger wars of aggression in the long term.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-politics/

And one of the chambers of the Russian legislature just approved this request. Hoo, boy.

Shit got real-er:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26403996

The Ukrainian Army is now on full combat alert. The prospect that the centennial year of the First World War will see the first large-scale conventional European war in decades has risen exponentially.

[identity profile] sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com 2014-03-04 04:15 am (UTC)(link)
Why the fuck would we be sending light infantry anywhere they'd be facing combined forces unsupported? Most likely unit of deployment would be an MEU or CTF both of which include organic air and anti-armor assets.

...and you're still dodging.

[identity profile] sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com 2014-03-04 05:03 am (UTC)(link)
You don't need a full armored division if you aren't going on the attack. Our actual, readily deployable assets include at least 2 MEUs, 3 if we recall the first and call up the reserves. They have enough in the way of organic air and anti-tank assets to make things interesting and can be deployed in days rather than months. They are also very hard to mess with in transit unless the Russians feel like fighting a blue-water air or sub war, an scenario that would be playing to the US's strengths.

ETA:
...and you're still dodging.

Fact remains that despite being a bit busted up the US still has options when it comes to slinging our weight around in the wider world. Meanwhile France is having trouble with rebels who are less than 6 hours outside Paris as the C-130 A-400 flies.
Edited 2014-03-04 05:04 (UTC)

[identity profile] 404.livejournal.com 2014-03-04 05:41 am (UTC)(link)
Again I remind you that in the real world the rest of us live in it took months to build up to beat third-rate Iraq when Iraq could do nothing.

It only took months because of the the diplomatic front dragging along, the military and policy makers implementation of new technology systems in the Middle East and the concern over a perceived Vietnam Syndrome.

2014's US military isn't that same one from 1991. I'm concerned that you weren't aware of this.

[identity profile] sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com 2014-03-06 07:19 am (UTC)(link)
First off, you're still dodging the question AND moving the goal posts.

Secondly, I don't think you really understand the sort of logistical capability that US military actually has, or how unique that capability is.