Relax!

[telemann.livejournal.com]

It's only three weeks to the election. You're white-knuckled, and pulling your hair out screaming "OH WHEN WILL IT END? JUST THREE MORE WEEKS! I CAN'T TAKE IT ANYMORE!" You drink your favorite morning beverage and chant your mantra: it's nearly over, it's nearly over, it's nearly over!



The one fatal flaw in the Electoral College is that it allows for the possibility of tied vote, something that's increasingly likely in the polarized electorate of the last twenty years.¹ Nate Silver recently wrote a column about this. NBC News political coverage director Chuck Todd and Pete Williams (who covers the Supreme Court and Justice Dept, and is himself a lawyer) talked on about ramifications of a tie election on The Daily Rundown.

Chuck Todd believes that if this happens, the most likely scenario would be this:



Obama would carry WI, OH, NH.
Romney would carry FL, NC, VA, CO, NV

And when you check Nate Silver's analysis of the state of the race, Mr. Todd is spot-on. One new feature in this election cycle is that in some states, electoral college votes can be split within the state. Case in point is Maine. It has four electoral votes, but the 2nd Congressional district is very conservative and rural. What happens if Romney gets 1 vote, and Obama the other three and change up the map just a wee bit (Flip Nevada back to President Obama, then Wisconsin and New Hampshire to Governor Romney)?




So what happens in the case of tie electoral vote? (assuming no contested elections, appeals to the Supreme Court, blah blah blah). Congress would have a "contingent" election. The House of Representatives would elect the President, the Senate the Vice President. In the House each state delegation gets a single vote. The candidate would need 26 votes to win. What happens if there is a tie? They would keep voting until a winner was declared. In the Senate, they would vote individually, 51 vote needed to win. But what happens in a tie vote? The sitting Vice President would cast the tie breaking vote according to the Constitution. No doubt, Republicans would object to this (it would be pointless, but if they did....) the Senate Parliamentarian would rule on the matter, and the Senate would vote on that recommendation. Tied vote on that? The Vice President would cast the tie breaking vote ;)

Not confused yet?

The District of Columbia gets 3 electoral college votes, but in the case of a contingent election in Congress, they would not vote. And it would be the newly elected Congress that would vote (they take office in early January and in fact one of their first duties is to count and certify the November election. Then there is the issue of "faithless electors," who change their mind at the last moment and will ignore who they were elected to vote for. That's not as rare as it seems -- it's happened ten times previously, the most recently was in 2000, when the District of Columbia's electors changed their vote to protest the Supreme Court decision in 2000 (Bush vs. Gore). If an single elector changed their vote, the contingent election in Congress would not be needed.




Some of this confusion stems from the fact when the United States Constitution was written there really wasn't an idea of political parties, it didn't take long to end up with the odd situation like in the 1800 election, where there was a tie. The 12th amendment was passed after the 1800 election to remedy several flaws.

One of the pluses mentioned for keeping the Electoral College is that it forces the candidates to go to several states, and not just worry about the states with the larger population centers (e.g. in a strictly popular vote - winner takes all, states with large urban centers would become too powerful and eventually control the national political agenda). But the same complaint can be made about the Electoral College now, several states are essentially now the "king makers" and in this cycle, Ohio and Virginia are getting nearly all campaign visits. What are the chances you'll see President Obama or Mitt Romney campaign in Idaho or Nebraska?


----------------
There are 538 votes in the Electoral College (based on the states population and House of Representatives districts). You need 270 electoral college votes to win the election. Voters in November are really electing ELECTORS, that will meet in their state capitals in December and cast their ballots, which are then counted and certified when the new Congress is seated January 3, 2013. The District of Columbia gets 3 votes, but if there is a contingent election in Congress (due to a tied Electoral College vote), Congressional representatives would not be able to vote.

Comments

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

The only worse outcome would be if they took the results to SCOTUS again.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I was going to try to compile a list of battleground states with their automatic vote recount thresholds, but it seems like a lot of them don't do it. But if they do, it's usually if there is only about half a percentage difference between the winner and loser.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

John Boehner selects the next POTUS? This here's my reaction to it:



I'd really rather it not not turn into the House choosing the POTUS in reality, though on the one hand, but watching the sheer shitstorm that would ensue and make 2001 look like a Sunday stroll in the park *is* an appealing bit of theater and will make the ensuing discussions quite epic to read. XP

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I feel the same way: that it would be worse than 2000, because most people in the country views Congress as a collection of slime balls (and elects them back into office year after year after year).

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

That's because Congress has more slimeballs than an algae-ridden pond in the ass end of Alabama. ;)

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

If that's how it happens then that is our system, but it would be a worst case scenario for the next administration. The President chosen by Congress? Congress has approval ratings that place it only slighter higher than Ebola Virus...and that's only because a measurable percentage of the population doesn't know what Ebola is.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Romney would win in a contingent election, because it's doubtful the House will change in this cycle. I'm sure Romney would take it over not wining at all, but what a horrible horrible way to get into the White House.

[devil-ad-vocate.livejournal.com]

I believe a measurable percentage of Congress - possibly up to 75% - would think Ebola is a new South American dance craze.

[fizzyland.livejournal.com]

Bush Sends Troops To West Nile (http://www.theonion.com/articles/bush-sends-troops-to-west-nile,57/)

[gunslnger.livejournal.com]

Apparently a measurable percentage of the population doesn't know Bin Laden is dead.
http://youtu.be/gpv0lPz-pd4

[fizzyland.livejournal.com]

In that case,

See you at the party!

[dwer.livejournal.com]

remember when that level of graphic violence was extreme?

[fizzyland.livejournal.com]

And when movies used primarily physical effects instead of post-production CGI. This was a low budget film but it still holds up, especially compared to the crappy remake.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Yep. And that was the toned down version. It was given an "X" rating initially, and Paul Verhoeven had to recut it to get an "R".

[dwer.livejournal.com]

It's one of my favorite movies. I'd love to see an X version.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

I know a directors cut Blu Ray was just released a few months ago, maybe they have some of the cut footage. Arnold had a hard time with the dialogue: some scenes took nearly 60 takes before the director was happy.

[dwer.livejournal.com]

GE CHOR UZZ TU MAHZ!!!!

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Stanley Kubrick was extremely hard to work with, he would do *hundreds of takes* of a scene (e. g. there all kinds of deleted scenes from 2001 that were destroyed after his death). James Cameron is a perfectionist too.

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

Sometimes as a technique, to boot. He apparently would do dozens and dozens of takes in The Shining to get Shelley Duvall looking appropriately haggard and unsettled.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I've seen clips of him badgering her.

[oportet.livejournal.com]

There's also a directors cut of Commando. Skip ahead to when he gets to the island, and just watch that every morning - you won't need coffee to wake up anymore.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Hahahaa!

[allhatnocattle.livejournal.com]

the hack did a Rambo rip-off. Rambo was still better.

[fizzyland.livejournal.com]

Arnold however was the king of action film one-liners and commando is full of them.

"Let off some steam, Bennett."

Demolition Man was the closest that Stallone came to that kind of humor.

[yes-justice.livejournal.com]

Intentionally?

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0090859/quotes

[fizzyland.livejournal.com]

Verhoven really hit the mark with both Total Recall and Robocop.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Yeah, he's restarting his Hollywood career again (he went back to Holland for the last 15 years or so).

[dwer.livejournal.com]

The Robocop remake looks terrible as well.

[fizzyland.livejournal.com]

It does - I was hopeful when I saw Hugh Laurie's name attached that he would be the criminal mastermind but all I've seen so far is batman-looking black armor. Which misses the entire point.

[peristaltor.livejournal.com]

Have you seen his earlier Dutch movies? Spetters, The Fourth Man and Soldier of Orange are especially good.

[fizzyland.livejournal.com]

I haven't seen any of those films but I will add them to my list.

[peristaltor.livejournal.com]

I would love to see the Dan O'Bannan version, which never got made. Ronald Schussett (sp?) picked the sillier plot stream of the two adaptations the two created of the original PKD story.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Yeah, ditto that!

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

As a Godzilla fan, I still think CGI is dramatically overrated. The Virgin Iguana of New York City has more than a little to do with that.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

When you tell kids today about the time that Bush and Gore went to the Supremes, they don't believe it. Just the mention of hanging chads makes me nostalgic for the pre-9/11 world.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

[allhatnocattle.livejournal.com]

http://youtu.be/KrkwgTBrW78

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

Wow. It's really, really scary how realistic the tie scenario works. I know how unlikely it is, but wow.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

One of the only times it did work was with John Q. Adams. It's where the term "Corrupt Bargain" came into play. Now imagine a modern-day version where people allege a "Corrupt Bargain" between Romney and Boehner and the claim is made that Romney is only POTUS because the GOP in Congress expects to run roughshod over the whole thing.....and then for mega-LULZ the Dems retake the House of Representatives, just for maximum popcorn-on-couch time. XP

[oportet.livejournal.com]

Does this mean Obama/Ryan or Romney/Biden could win?

[dwer.livejournal.com]

yes, absolutely.

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

Obama/Romney, in a repeat of the 1796 election absurdity? Maybe that's what it'd take to get us to drop the electoral college...

[rimpala.livejournal.com]

Arnold is hardly the poster child for "relax"

"Get to da choppa! Do it noa! ARGHARHGH!"

I nominate Frankie Goes to Hollywood.

[allhatnocattle.livejournal.com]

Can't wait to see President Romney's face on the new $3 bill.

[jerseycajun.livejournal.com]

My solution:

Keep the Electoral College, but amend it. The winner of the overall state gets the two electors from that state that come from the Senate. The electors that represent the House get divided proportionally by vote, giving some incentive for candidates to campaign there anyway, if just to steal an elector or two from the latter group.