I have seen the future, and I doesn't like it.

[green-man-2010.livejournal.com]

Life after the oil crash.
Ok, last time, I went and pinned it on a vid that most people cannot read at work.
So I am letting y'all boot up something you can read quitely when you oght to be working :)

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

In case you have trouble reading graphs, this one has a Blue Peter style 'talk you through the implications' - complete with original sources, for those who wanna check.

It might seem like I am doom mongering , but I just want to say -
Let's put more into Planned Parenthood, make it optional, but make it a damned sight easier at home and abroad.

Let's have oil rationing, sooner rather than later. Let's also have everything rationed if it's made with oil.

let's try to be civilised about the few resources left and share them out among ourselves.

Let's start reducing consumption , reusing things and recycling more.

let's remember that civilisation as we know it will be over by 2050, if it lasts that long.

Comments

[eracerhead.livejournal.com]

The energy balance is in the form of how quickly the potential energy in the fossil fuels is converted to heat vs how quickly it can be produced. The ability to inexpensively shift energy produced millions of years ago to current usage has caused societal expectation to rise more quickly than it would have without it. Now that it is becoming scarce, there will have to be a reckoning with these expectations, which is the point.

I don't see how your numbers here relate to anything practical. Allowing for efficiency losses of the collection transmission and storage we end up being able to put about 10% of the radiation to practical use. So right from the start the coverage would need to be 10X higher than you state or 10,000 km^2. Allowing for 1/10 of this capacity to be down for maintenance at any given time we now have to increase the coverage by an additional 10% so now we are up to 11,000.

Now here is the rub: All of this is at current levels of production. If we now consider that the population is increasing at 7.4% it will double in about 10 years, so by 2021 we will need 22,000 Km^2. Now consider that most of the world is catching up to energy usage of the west, so a doubling is not going to be enough, it will need to, say, double again. So by 2021 we will need 44,000 square kilometers of coverage, roughly the size of Denmark. How long do you suppose it would it take to build a roof over Denmark? We are already out of time, conservation is absolutely necessary to reduce the impact. We westerners must either reduce our per capita energy consumption or reduce our numbers, there is no way out.

[green-man-2010.livejournal.com]

metaphorically speaking , some of us are still banging the rocks together when it comes to getting to grips with Peak Oil - i get that you are not gonna chage their mids.
but a roof over Denmark?
Wow! when you put the size of the problem in those terms, it staggers me.

But still , some will shake their heads and say " we will do it somehow",
I mean, there is no way that can see America surviving if they have to give everyone healthcare, but they are sure they can run up a roof over Denmark.
After all, it does not look that big on the map!