Korean War, Part 2?

[kinvore.livejournal.com]

Apparently an investigation into the sinking of a South Korean naval ship in March has concluded that North Korea had launched a torpedo into the ship. Of course North Korea denies the accusation, warning that any retaliation would trigger war.

Assuming the results of the investigation are accurate, how should South Korea respond? How WILL they respond? If all-out war finally breaks about again between the Koreas, how will it affect US/China relations? It seems unlikely that they will be drawn into the conflict, but I wouldn't bet money on either possibility.

It seems to me that without help from China, North Korea won't last very long against an all-out offensive by South Korea. Then again I'm by no means an expert. Of course as the article points out, this is hardly the first time that NK has done this sort of thing, and war hadn't broken out then either.

Comments

SK won't do squat.

[squidb0i.livejournal.com]

They know that there are nearly 10,000 artillery pieces aimed at Seoul.
Imagine shelling NYC or Chicago with that much firepower.
Yep.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

North Korea attacking South Korea...

I like the mind game, but if we return to reality world for a minute, that's not going to happen.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

(Well, unless SK beats NK in the World Cup, that would be something totally different).

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

I think he meant SK could invade NK but that's even less likely.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

"how will it affect US/China relations?"

Oh you America-centric!

The more important question is, how would that affect the Koreas?

[anfalicious.livejournal.com]

NK have what, half a dozen nukes? I imagine that China and the US would bring their respective puppies to heel before anything serious broke out. Neither would want a war now, sure they want to save that for a decade or so's time.

[ironhawke.livejournal.com]

I know it may sound a little bizarre, but I'd be interested in seeing what the results would be of a renewed conflict between the two. Its obvious the NK needs to be dismantled...their culture is simply decaying and its a matter of time until they completely collapse. The problem is that we'd have INTENSE international strain. While I doubt either the US or China would overtly fight the war on either side...I wouldn't doubt that we'd finance the bajeesus outta it.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Radioactive for a few years?

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

The roaches will outlive us all!

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

No, he asked because he cares so much about China.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

There are smarter ways of subversion. Like flooding them with crappy cars.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

By the standard of international law the Korean War has never officially ended.

If war starts you can bet that the massive artillery destruction of Seoul will *really* trigger a global double-dip. North Korea has a massive army but shitty equipment. In this case all the land mines in the DMZ are going to be able to blunt the bludgeon at first.

Though in terms of what would happen once the USA and South Korea win.....no good options but a whole slew of bad to worse ones.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

It ends badly for both sides. Seoul will once more look like Berlin in June of 1945 and North Korea's massive army is going to be nothing short of cannon fodder for the South Koreans and the USA, and also all the landmines in the DMZ. Even back when the North Korean army was technologically equal to the USA much more than now it was blunted in a half-year.

Nowadays they'd have maybe a month or two and have to put all their faith in numbers, which would cause the war to be a much smaller-scale version of the Eastern Front of World War I.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Agreed.

Re: SK won't do squat.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Agreed.

[torpidai.livejournal.com]

Though in terms of what would happen once the USA and South Korea win.....no good options but a whole slew of bad to worse

And no-one will ever compell the victor to tell the truth.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

That unfortunately applies to all wars.

In this particular case the war would create a massive refugee crisis, mass death and acceleration of the mass starvation in North Korea.....and the description above is a cheap clinical description. It minimizes that the human tragedy won't be limited to the obliteration of a city of 20 millions and one of the major financial centers of the present-day world, but a shitload of North Koreans are going to die, too.

This is with merely the bad option as opposed to the worst.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

The PRC will never want a war regardless. The hordes of refugees that would swarm into China once such a thing began would be a deterrent to any Great Power. If North Korea starts one it'd be a sign that China can't control events there anymore.

[meus-ovatio.livejournal.com]

You're mistaken. Anything goes hot and United Statesians are in the thick of it from the get-go. There is no possible way that we wouldn't be involved if a war breaks out.

[geezer-also.livejournal.com]

You are prly correct. China has enough poor of their own. Parts of China could end up like Los Angeles. Altho from what I understand about NK, while the refugees wouldn't be living in better circumstances, they may actually be able to have real food to eat.

[geezer-also.livejournal.com]

I'm thinking you are basically correct, but in the aftermath, the survivors in NK would benefit by massive food drops. I may be jaded, but actually having gone hungry, I think there are few things worse than living that way one's whole life.

[meus-ovatio.livejournal.com]

You're right. Rather, we should talk about things we don't know, so you can then hammer people for talking about places they don't know. Quit whining about the America-centric ffs. You would rather Americans just made shit up about other places? Either way, you win right? How about people just talk about what they know and leave it at that? Americans certainly can't stand in for non-Americans.

[kinvore.livejournal.com]

So care to answer your more important question?

I ask about US/China relations because a war between the Koreas could really put these relations to the test, with global ramifications.

[kinvore.livejournal.com]

There can be only one!

[kinvore.livejournal.com]

Well I guess I'm more concerned with our level of involvement, and if it would result in us pulling out of Iraq and/or Afghanistan sooner, etc.