Welcoming the new old overlords

[fridi]

Russia and Belarus are clearly collaborating very closely. So closely that many are now talking of a possible annexation, or at least de facto economic absorption of Belarus by Russia. Others are seeing a chance for Putin to prolong his term indefinitely.

You'd seldom see opposition protests in Minsk. And you'd even more rarely see the police tolerating them. A notable example was the protest from a couple weeks ago, when a few hundred people followed the call of opposition leader Mikola Statkevich and protested Russia's tightening grip on their country.

The pretext was the deepening economic integration between the two former Soviet republics, and the plan to make them even closer by the end of the year. There's been speculation on the subject for months, but no official information. Last month the Russian economic newspaper Kommersant finally made these plans public: the two have apparently agreed to harmonize their tax code, foreign trade rules, and the rules of oversight on the energy and banking sectors.

We're talking of integration that's way tighter than the EU's. No shared currency has been planned as of yet, or official merging of the two countries, but such a union would clearly be veyr uneven, because Russia is several orders of magnitude larger than Belarus, not to mention the economic size discrepancy. The two have signed an allies treaty in 1999, but it's mostly been on paper so far. Now the new plan will be officially announced on Dec 8, at the 20 year anniversary of the old treaty, and the new version is expected to be much different.

Sure, Belarus is closely dependent on Russia even now, along with a few other former Soviet republics that are now part of the so called Eurasian economic union. The government in Minsk is trying to curb the concerns among part of the population that fears annexation, assuring them the new agreement won't be anything more than a re-confirmation of the existing one.

But Mr Statkevich, the opposition leader, is seeing things otherwise. He's fearing a possible annexation, not by force but by economic means - and he's saying the Belarussian government is doing little to prevent it. Statkevich ran for president a few years ago, as leader of the banned People's Assembly party. The main point in his campaign was that Belarus has been turned into a unprofitable economic appendix to Russia, and it should be rid of this influence.

Indeed, the bulk of the Belarussian economy is based on Russia-subsidized oil and gas shipments. But things have gone worse on the energy sector lately. Experts believe this is because of the new tax laws in Russia that make oil exports to Belarus more expensive. There've been media reports that Russia is not planning on loosening the grip at all, unless Belarus agrees on a tighter economic integration. This concern is basically what the opposition is saying as well.

In essence, this is about Russia swallowing Belarus economically, and thus, politically. In the long term, Belarus will be drawing some short-term benefit from the lower energy prices, but in the meantime their development prospects will be severely crippled.

There's been a rumor that Moscow's true plan is to ensure a new term for president Putin. Now that his two terms as president will finally expire in 2024, on paper he has no right to run again. Unless a new political union with Belarus is declared, that is. Possibly a confederation of some sorts. This could solve the probelm for Vlad very conveniently. Although, frankly, this scenario looks unlikely from where I stand. Russia has clearly quit its plans to completely swallow Belarus, and they've opted for a more concealed version of the process, a unofficial one where they'll be calling the shots in the Belarussian economy, but keeping the puppet regime there at least nomninally. As for Putin's presidency problem, I'm sure he'll find a solution, but it won't have anything to do with Belarus.

Unfortunately, there's little opposition left in Belarus that could hinder those plans. Statkevich is one of the last survivors. Everyone else has been suppressed, jailed, put down. There's a lot of fear in that society. People haven't forgotten what happened to those who dared to come out in protest against Lukashenko's authoritarianism. The crackdown was brutal. Another reason for all this silence may be the hope of many Belarussians that they could actually benefit from a closer integration with Russia, and in fact if Putin basically rules in Minsk, that'd put Lukashenko out of the equation. And there's a lot of fear and resentment against the Belarussian president, and many people would be more than happy to see him go. So far it remains unclear what part of their country's sovereignty they're prepared to sacrifice for that purpose.

Comments

[dancesofthelight]

Belarus is what Russia wishes Ukraine was. It doesn't help that the same USA that freaked out over first the prospect and then the reality of Russian expansionism in Ukraine forgets Belarus exists. Nor that NATO would fight on the Elbe (maybe) but won't wave a broomstick in anger for anything east of it. Why would Russia care about a lack of opposition, exactly?

Also another well-written and concise post that cuts through a lot of complicated stuff to put it succintly. :)