Let's talk impeachment... by way of a sports analogy

[kiaa]

Those of us old enough to recall Ali-Foreman remember that everyone thought Ali was losing for seven rounds because he was barely throwing any punches while Foreman was scoring lots of unanswered points with the judges. But when Ali finally came off the ropes and started counter-punching, those judges scorecards couldn't save George. That's what I believe will happen with Mueller-Trump.

Like Foreman, Trump seems fearsome and unstoppable now. Every tough guy seems unbeatable – until he finds himself in a real street brawl with someone who knows how to fight back. So personally I don't care if Trump seems to be "winning" with his 40% right now. That’s not the scorecard that counts. Because if the House turns blue and passes articles of impeachment, there's going to be a trial. Sure, it is unlikely right now that there would be 67 votes to impeach. (Though I would not rule that out entirely.) But Trump isn't Bill Clinton, and this isn't just a blowjob.

When Mueller and his team lay out a detailed and damning case against Trump, his current public support can only dwindle. And when clear crimes are laid out, and they are in the news 24/7, being spelled out for every layperson to understand, it's going to be hard for 17-22 GOP senators to pretend it doesn't exist. Yeah, Trump might ultimately be acquitted in the senate by a few votes. But avoiding an impeachment conviction by 4 or 7 votes is not going to "vindicate" him. It will cripple whatever presidency he has left.

So when all these TV talking heads moan that Trump and Giuliani's current PR blitz "is working," don't be disheartened. This is a lonnnng game Mueller and his team are playing. They are experts in what they do and they aren't in this to lose. These guys are going to offer up a very clear and compelling case, and it will be worse than Benghazi or Emailgate in terms of media coverage.

When crimes are proven, Trump's support will whither again and so will any public goodwill he may currently have with his base (save the 25-30% diehards). If it could happen to Bill Cosby, it can happen to Trump. The case will be made and the public will see it all. His time in the fire is coming. He knows it. Giuliani knows it. Mueller knows it. You should know it, too.

Comments

[johnny9fingers]

I think the comparison with Bill Cosby may not be the best one. There are too many competing narratives in the Cosby case, and intersectionality here can have negative dynamic consequences.

The one thing I would note is that Trump got elected as POTUS despite admitting to groping women in interview, and the public record of his business failures and dealings etc - if you like he was elected despite his overt criminal behaviour. I think we have to look at a range of scenarios because of this. Trump is the American Berlusconi.

Berlusconi is still around, despite the convictions, if you see what I mean. But America and Italy are very different polities. In America all of a political career is compressed into four-year terms with a two term maximum, or as a henchman of some sort for life before running for the top job; in each case after a suitable apprenticeship. So the arc of the Donald's tenure will be of four or eight years. If he's a single-term POTUS he may well avoid impeachment. Putting together a watertight case will take an appreciable amount of time, by which the Donald may have already retired to cheat at golf to his heart's content.

Also, the US knows how divisive the process of impeachment is, and they are not in a good place at the moment when it comes to division. Fuel to the flames?

My own opinion is to try to ensure he is a one-term President. Make the arguments for removing him as part of the political process. To some extent he can justify continuing to act as he does because the voters put him where he is knowing what he is like. He has a personal mandate not to change his behaviour, at least in his opinion. Someone mentioned that you get the politicians you vote for, so vote him out next time.

Whatever else he has done, the Donald has certainly lived up to his Barnum and Bailey billing. This circus has come to town and boy, is it leaving elephant droppings all over the town after the parade.

[dewline]

And some of those voters went for DT-45 because of all the Bad News and Bad Behaviour on his part. Because they wanted exactly that sort of person in the Oval Office. If - no! - when they think they're about to lose their permission slips for their own crimes...

[halialkers]

Honestly the USA spent so long fellating the idea that any damn fool could do things as well as someone that knows what they're doing that it is embodying the idea and getting a good look at exactly where that went. The GOP crucified itself on the tenets of its own slavish devotion in practice to personality cults, the Dems are having problems of believing in democracy but being too lazy to keep it running.