Going rogue: The Philippines

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Case-in-point as per the monthly topic: The Philippines. Their bombastic president Rodrigo Duterte has become prominent for showing the middle finger to America, actually calling Obama a sonofabitch, and generally turning his back on the US interests in the Pacific. Last month he ordered a halt to his nation's long-time military alliance with the US (read: being a US puppet), and got entangled in a bitter war of words with the global empire. Now he's ordering the US troops to leave the country, and America to stop treating the Philippines "as a doormat".

To put this into perspective, this has been building up for more than a century - ever since the US decided to pursue the Periphery vs Heartland geopolitical stategy, which was most clearly outlined in the Grand Chessboard doctrine: control the naval zones, and suffocate the continental core of Eurasia. And the Philippines are an integral part of this game. It started as early as the 1890s when the US started grabbing the former colonies of the waning Spanish Empire by brutally invading the Philippines (as well as Puerto Rico, Cuba and half a dozen other places). The Filippinos have always resented this, but had been cowed into submission for a century or more. All that has changed is that the Philoppines now have a new master: China. And Duterte has become a Chinese tool. Because China is the new player in this equation, and they're asserting their position ever more boldly.

Want proof? Here it is.

China firm bags land reclamation contract with Philippines

While the US under Obama has been making a coy pivot to Asia, Duterte has done a full 180 and made a real pivot to China. Now he has commissioned a state-owned Chinese infrastructure group to build artificial islands in the South China Sea, which is exactly what Duterte's predecessor had sought to restrict via UN intervention. As hilarious as the fact may be that the Philippines (who until recently used to whine about China grabbing portions of that sea) is now actively seeking China's help to build islands in order to grab land in the sea, the whole thing starts reeking of Castro's Cuba.

I wonder what the US State Department thinks of all this. A coup coming to the Philippines anytime soon perhaps? We already know the drill, right?

Ps. Oh, and while we're bickering around here, China is stepping ever harder into Africa.

Egypt is getting a new capital - courtesy of China

Comments

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

Define "favorability", then. What is meant by "having a favorable view of the US"? Perhaps if we dig somewhat deeper into the question, we'd gain some more insight on these matters. By simply splashing some number in a chart, you're not explaining much. Not to mention that nuances like "want the US to play less of a role in the dispute" are hardly reflected in a simple "Do you like America: Yes or No" sort of poll. You do know how such polls could be manipulated or misused to arrive at one desired conclusion or another, right?

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

This chart wasn't meant to indicate how Filipinos perceive US involvement with this dispute in the South China Sea, it was meant to counter the claim that "brutally invading the Philippines ... The Filippinos have always resented this, but had been cowed into submission for a century or more." I don't think there are many colonies which think as highly of their former colonizers and it's actually pretty remarkable. The overwhelming majority of Filipinos have a favorable view of the US, whatever having a favorable view of something might mean. Of course this may be manipulated, but I think Pew is a pretty reliable source.

As far as what Filipinos think of US involvement in the SCS dispute, it's really more relevant what their government thinks. The previous government seemed very happy to have US support, the current one is going a different route. Maybe Filipinos are onboard, maybe not, but this is up to the Philippine government to address, not the US.

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

No, I'm saying the "X views Y favorably" can be misused in many ways to match a desired conclusion and narrative. Not that Pew is pulling data out of their ass or any such thing.

I actually agree that what the populace thinks of another populace or country is pretty much irrelevant to policy, which is why bringing up data about how much this or the other people likes America is irrelevant, save for scoring a couple of meaningless Internet points by appearing to refute a minor line in someone's post that doesn't even matter that much in the larger picture of things, and neither is anywhere near being central to the point.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

"The Filippinos have always resented this" -- This, being the fact that the US has brutally invaded the Philippines.

Has your Pew research asked the actual question, "Do you resent the fact that the US has brutally invaded your country"? Because that would be a bit different from "Do you view America favorably, whatever that means".

And here we're talking-about-talking. Does this minor bit even matter that much to you, that we've basically hijacked most of the thread with this non-issue?

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

Fine, fine. I was just answering questions, but this is really beside the point.

Really, the US was stuck with two obligations in the South China Sea, the first was to ensure the freedom of navigation, the second was to defend our allies. The first is not so much a problem, even if China claims an EEZ or territorial waters around half-submerged rocks, ships can still travel freely through them. Freedom of navigation is actually a pretty minor point that doesn't deserve the press it gets.

Maybe Mr. Duarte got the concessions he wanted from China. Since China was always pretty vague about what it meant when it said it claimed the area within the 9-dashed line, if it meant it was an EEZ or something different, if it claimed the whole area or just the islands, etc... there is certainly some area for negotiation. All in all a pretty smart way to go about it. Regardless, the US is pretty much off the hook on this one where the Philippines are concerned, or we can "go to hell" to use Mr. Duarte's exact words. I suspect the reaction by the state department is more along the lines of "Woo-Hoo!" than to plan a coup. Conflict with China wasn't the goal, it was something to be avoided. If we went to war with China, who would sell us TVs and loan us the money to buy them?