ext_92519 ([identity profile] dexeron.livejournal.com) wrote in [community profile] talkpolitics 2016-05-11 06:00 pm (UTC)

We've about hit peak-Trump. Sure, if he gets the nomination, we'll have to deal with his blustering until November, but it's all downhill from here. He can't win without attracting the folks in the center, and to do that, he must "flip-flop" away from his incendiary rhetoric. Staying the course with what he's been saying is ultimately a losing strategy, but trying to tack towards the center will destroy him. The crowds he's energized and gotten out to vote are not going to be happy with the more moderate message he's going to have to adopt (they like him only because of the insane things he's said) and the moderates and independents are hardly going to be suddenly wooed by someone who only a month ago was screaming xenophobic racism from his pulpit.

The only folks who might break ranks to vote for Trump are Bernie Bros upset after Clinton gets the Democratic nomination, but I seriously doubt we'll see massive numbers there. I'd expect more to just go third-party, and even then, not enough to save Trump.

The GOP's only hope this time (slim as it is) is to nominate someone else. They need a contested convention so that on the second vote (where the delegates are no longer required to vote for who the people voted for) they can put Cruz or someone less threatening, like Rubio, up there. The problem is, the moment that happens, you're going to see Trump's brownshirts completely lose it, and I would not be surprised to see actual physical violence in the aftermath.

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