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talkpolitics2012-11-07 01:42 pm
chron-job.livejournal.com) wrote in talkpolitics2012-11-07 01:42 pm
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The Devil's in the Demographics.
An interesting, if under reported result of last night's elections.
Puerto Rico just voted for statehood.
In a 2 part referendum, they voted for a change of status over the status quo (54% to 46%) and Statehood over 'Sovereign Free Association', or Independence (61%, over 33% and 5% respectively.)
Do you think this is likely to come to pass in the next few years? Critics say the referendum's split nature made it "confusing" to the point that it will be unconvincing to congress, but it makes perfect sense to me.
Currently people in Puerto Rico are considered citizens, but they can't vote for presidents, and they have no real voice in Congress. If they were made a state, being between Connecticut and Oklahoma in population, we'd expect them to have 5 seats in the House of Representatives, and 7 electoral votes. If they become a state, what does THAT do to your demographic calculations?
My own thought is that short term self interest will lead the Republicans in congress to hem, haw, delay, and oppose this, because of the obvious political implications. House Democrats ought to support it... both for short term political gain, and because it is in-line with both party, and, I feel, generally American, principles.
But mostly, this is just one more little pebble on the large scale that says "Republican Party, DIVERSIFY OR DIE!"
*** Edit *** 15:13
EST For those interested in the mechanics, and example of the plebiscite is on page 7 of this PDF. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42765.pdf
Puerto Rico just voted for statehood.
In a 2 part referendum, they voted for a change of status over the status quo (54% to 46%) and Statehood over 'Sovereign Free Association', or Independence (61%, over 33% and 5% respectively.)
Do you think this is likely to come to pass in the next few years? Critics say the referendum's split nature made it "confusing" to the point that it will be unconvincing to congress, but it makes perfect sense to me.
Currently people in Puerto Rico are considered citizens, but they can't vote for presidents, and they have no real voice in Congress. If they were made a state, being between Connecticut and Oklahoma in population, we'd expect them to have 5 seats in the House of Representatives, and 7 electoral votes. If they become a state, what does THAT do to your demographic calculations?
My own thought is that short term self interest will lead the Republicans in congress to hem, haw, delay, and oppose this, because of the obvious political implications. House Democrats ought to support it... both for short term political gain, and because it is in-line with both party, and, I feel, generally American, principles.
But mostly, this is just one more little pebble on the large scale that says "Republican Party, DIVERSIFY OR DIE!"
*** Edit *** 15:13
EST For those interested in the mechanics, and example of the plebiscite is on page 7 of this PDF. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42765.pdf
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I can see the problem.
But, the alternatives are difficult to. For those who support maintaining the status quo, the obvious political tactic is to present as many possible futures all on the same ballot, splitting the vote maximally, and then insist on a popular winner. A failure of any option to get a majority becomes a de facto win for the status quo, even if it didn't win as a seperate option.
If this problem came up with an elected position, we'd have a run off. The 2 question ballot seems like a good faith attempt to simulate a 'instant run off', but is prey to multiple interpretations of intent.
It seems like we're getting back to basic problems with plurality voting. Maybe the ballot should have included all the possible futures, but the voters would respond with a ranking system, allowing for a true instant run off. But in an electorate used to Plurality voting, this also would be disparaged as confusing.
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