In short, Bahrain's rulers have many cards to play. And the international response to the uprising seems likely to strengthen the regime further. Bahrain is, after all, a key American ally, hosting the US navy's 5th Fleet, which patrols the Persian Gulf and keeps Iran in check. While the US has urged the Bahraini government to rein in its security forces, its evidently unwilling to press for regime change. Keeping its naval bases will be a top US priority - one that'll ultimately shape its response to the situation in Bahrain.
Saudi Arabia can also be expected to do everything in its power to prevent the al-Khalifas' fall. Bahrain is KSA's most loyal ally in the region, and the Saudis fear that sectarian unrest could spread to the country's eastern region, where a Shia-minority is holding long-held grievances. For years, the Saudis have propped up the Bahraini regime by providing free oil and funding its budget. When the unrest erupted, KSA almost immediately dispatched military units to bolster Bahrain's own weak forces.
Sure, change may be coming to much of the Middle East, but with Bahrain's social fault lines too wide to bridge, the regime thats willing to resort to brutal violence to crush any uprising, and the international community ready to look the other way, the protesters in Manama should be prepared for defeat. I'm afraid i may've been sounding too gloomy (http://community.livejournal.com/talk_politics/918494.html) as of late, but there's that.
(3)
Saudi Arabia can also be expected to do everything in its power to prevent the al-Khalifas' fall. Bahrain is KSA's most loyal ally in the region, and the Saudis fear that sectarian unrest could spread to the country's eastern region, where a Shia-minority is holding long-held grievances. For years, the Saudis have propped up the Bahraini regime by providing free oil and funding its budget. When the unrest erupted, KSA almost immediately dispatched military units to bolster Bahrain's own weak forces.
Sure, change may be coming to much of the Middle East, but with Bahrain's social fault lines too wide to bridge, the regime thats willing to resort to brutal violence to crush any uprising, and the international community ready to look the other way, the protesters in Manama should be prepared for defeat. I'm afraid i may've been sounding too gloomy (http://community.livejournal.com/talk_politics/918494.html) as of late, but there's that.