You're absolutely right about the Confederates-- look at what Washington did during the Revolutionary War, the British essentially captured and occupied some of the largest cities in the colonies-- and large swathes of territory in the Northern colonies-- elements that would constitute a traditional victory in any war. Washington hung by a thread until the French and Dutch provided money, and weapons. The British made some silly tactical errors, but then so did the Union forces later on. And had France or Britain stepped in with arms, and diplomatic recognition for the Confederates (and they were extremely close to doing so), things would have turned out differently. ESPECIALLY if Union naval forces started attacking French and British ships that were trying to get cotton from the South.