Except that Russia's invasion seems to be to me a bit of a clear-cut case of what's actually pretty damn predictable in the region: someone stirs up trouble and makes a mess for what they think is a foolproof means to limited territorial gains when the cards are loaded in their favor and then it turns out the battlefield has a logic all its own and that it's easier to start these wars than it is to end them or to pursue any kind of clear-cut strategic goals. By the same logic you want to apply to Putin, we could say, look at American involvement in Waziristan and Yemen and say the same illogic applies to American actions in these regions.