Declining voter share would point to an inferior GOTV effort, all other things being equal. GOTV efforts must be interacting with other variables.
Right. The other variable in this case being an overall decline in voter share.
Is Obama's GOTV effort sited in exit polls?
Not explicitly. You would think, however, that "racism" or some formulation of it would be cited as a reaosn to vote in a way certain targeted demographics are discovered/graphed/polled.
The presumption that Obama won over Romney because of his superior GOTV effort is also a 'theoretical.' It also happens to be a theoretical that specifically allows Conservatives to explain the election loss with minimal soul searching, and is thus, deeply convenient.
It may be theoretical, but you're also not offering anything concrete to dispute it. GOTV matters.
Republicans have now lost 5 out of 6 of the last 6 presidential popular votes, If this is always because of bad campaigning, then we have to ask ourselves, what is it about the Republican Presidential process since 1988 that inevitably leads to bad campaigns?
If we want to play that game, the Democrats have only won a majority of the popular vote twice in the last 30 years. What is it about the Democrats that doesn't resonate with a majority, right?
Nothing Gets Out The Vote like agreeing with one candidate more than the other. Obama's most powerful GOTV tool is having policies more popular than Republicans.
If that were true, you might have a point. But consider this exit:
no subject
Right. The other variable in this case being an overall decline in voter share.
Is Obama's GOTV effort sited in exit polls?
Not explicitly. You would think, however, that "racism" or some formulation of it would be cited as a reaosn to vote in a way certain targeted demographics are discovered/graphed/polled.
The presumption that Obama won over Romney because of his superior GOTV effort is also a 'theoretical.' It also happens to be a theoretical that specifically allows Conservatives to explain the election loss with minimal soul searching, and is thus, deeply convenient.
It may be theoretical, but you're also not offering anything concrete to dispute it. GOTV matters.
Republicans have now lost 5 out of 6 of the last 6 presidential popular votes, If this is always because of bad campaigning, then we have to ask ourselves, what is it about the Republican Presidential process since 1988 that inevitably leads to bad campaigns?
If we want to play that game, the Democrats have only won a majority of the popular vote twice in the last 30 years. What is it about the Democrats that doesn't resonate with a majority, right?
Nothing Gets Out The Vote like agreeing with one candidate more than the other. Obama's most powerful GOTV tool is having policies more popular than Republicans.
If that were true, you might have a point. But consider this exit: