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talkpoliticsThe street protests in Damascus have intensified over the last week, and the government's brutality in response has begun to match that. Last week hundreds of Syrians gathered to protest against the government, calling for democratic reforms and for release of the political prisoners. AP reported that the first demonstrations had gone peacefully, but since last Tuesday the government has unleashed pro-Assad sympathizers against them, and they started beating the protestors, which prompted a police crackdown.
It's the well-known scenario from Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and elsewhere - first they formed a group in Facebook calling for a day of anger against Assad. The reasons are well-known too, unemployment, food prices and poverty. The noon prayer was the starting point and the protests quickly spread from there across town. BBC reported about many people being arrested, and amateur Youtube vids like the one below showed protesters calling for freedom of speech and an end to government corruption and an end to the martial law which has been in place ever since 1963.
[Error: unknown template video]
Some time later, the central square in Damascus saw scores of Assad supporters organizing a counter-rally, shouting things like "We're ready to die for Assad, we'll give our blood for Assad", etc suchlike Libya-familiar stuff.
Bashar al-Assad who came to power in 2000 after a decades long rule of his father, had started to slowly open up the economy, but still his administration remained very conservative. The political prisoners in Syria are thousands, and all larger opposition formations are banned. The government has blocked access to some internet websites and is exerting a strict control on the media.
However, after last week's protests the Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem promised that this year the Syrian people would finally get the long-expected and long-promised political reforms. There were hints that a multi-party system could be restored.
This isn't the first such wave of protests in Syria for the year. Last month there was a spontaneous rally on the old marketplace in downtown Damascus. A catalyst for the people's anger was a squabble between the police and a local vendor. In February, some youngsters who were supporting the rebels in Libya organized a peaceful demonstration in the capital city. But the police responded with brutality and it beat up some of them and detained many, using for pretext the fact that one of the youngsters had violated the preliminary instructions of the security forces.
For the time being, the observers are reluctant to pronounce definitive forecasts about the Syrian situation, and they prefer to wait and watch if this will go any further (and i myself may be about to lose a bet here). The Middle East societies are very diverse and it would be stupid to apply the Egyptian/Tunisian scenario, or the Libyan/Yemeni scenario, or the Bahraini scenario, or the Omani scenario to a country like Syria.
Besides, as BBC reports, Assad himself is still quite popular within Syria. After the Tunisian and Egyptian events he instantly started to take some measures for decreasing the food prices. Additional aid was given to the poor, and state servicemen were instructed to take extra care and amend their behavior towards the citizens. What's more, the further calls around the social networks for a big "day of anger" didn't meet much enthusiasm. The main reason seems to be the lack of a real opposition in the country and the fear from the security forces.
Still, many Syrians consider the reforms to be just cosmetic, and "too little, too late". A BBC analysis says that, despite all the measures taken against the corruption which has soaked the whole system, some persons close to the regime still remain untouchable. For example one of the biggest oligarchs and best Assad buddies, Rami Makhlouf who's a cousin to the president, is enjoying special privileges. But of course he's denying any wrongdoings.
In January, Assad told the Wall Street Journal that Syria was "more stable than Tunisia and Egypt and there's no threat of riots". But let's not forget that this is exactly what other leaders in the region, including those of Tunisia and Egypt, used to claim just before the outburst of the revolutions that brought them down. The second term of the Syrian president will be over in 2014. This year Syria expects regional and parliamentary elections. Some Syrians believe that this is a golden opportunity for change and a peaceful transition to democracy. Assad is standing in front of a fateful choice - either become the next Mubarak, or the next Qaboos. It's up to him.
It's the well-known scenario from Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and elsewhere - first they formed a group in Facebook calling for a day of anger against Assad. The reasons are well-known too, unemployment, food prices and poverty. The noon prayer was the starting point and the protests quickly spread from there across town. BBC reported about many people being arrested, and amateur Youtube vids like the one below showed protesters calling for freedom of speech and an end to government corruption and an end to the martial law which has been in place ever since 1963.
[Error: unknown template video]
Some time later, the central square in Damascus saw scores of Assad supporters organizing a counter-rally, shouting things like "We're ready to die for Assad, we'll give our blood for Assad", etc suchlike Libya-familiar stuff.
Bashar al-Assad who came to power in 2000 after a decades long rule of his father, had started to slowly open up the economy, but still his administration remained very conservative. The political prisoners in Syria are thousands, and all larger opposition formations are banned. The government has blocked access to some internet websites and is exerting a strict control on the media.
However, after last week's protests the Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem promised that this year the Syrian people would finally get the long-expected and long-promised political reforms. There were hints that a multi-party system could be restored.
This isn't the first such wave of protests in Syria for the year. Last month there was a spontaneous rally on the old marketplace in downtown Damascus. A catalyst for the people's anger was a squabble between the police and a local vendor. In February, some youngsters who were supporting the rebels in Libya organized a peaceful demonstration in the capital city. But the police responded with brutality and it beat up some of them and detained many, using for pretext the fact that one of the youngsters had violated the preliminary instructions of the security forces.
For the time being, the observers are reluctant to pronounce definitive forecasts about the Syrian situation, and they prefer to wait and watch if this will go any further (and i myself may be about to lose a bet here). The Middle East societies are very diverse and it would be stupid to apply the Egyptian/Tunisian scenario, or the Libyan/Yemeni scenario, or the Bahraini scenario, or the Omani scenario to a country like Syria.
Besides, as BBC reports, Assad himself is still quite popular within Syria. After the Tunisian and Egyptian events he instantly started to take some measures for decreasing the food prices. Additional aid was given to the poor, and state servicemen were instructed to take extra care and amend their behavior towards the citizens. What's more, the further calls around the social networks for a big "day of anger" didn't meet much enthusiasm. The main reason seems to be the lack of a real opposition in the country and the fear from the security forces.
Still, many Syrians consider the reforms to be just cosmetic, and "too little, too late". A BBC analysis says that, despite all the measures taken against the corruption which has soaked the whole system, some persons close to the regime still remain untouchable. For example one of the biggest oligarchs and best Assad buddies, Rami Makhlouf who's a cousin to the president, is enjoying special privileges. But of course he's denying any wrongdoings.
In January, Assad told the Wall Street Journal that Syria was "more stable than Tunisia and Egypt and there's no threat of riots". But let's not forget that this is exactly what other leaders in the region, including those of Tunisia and Egypt, used to claim just before the outburst of the revolutions that brought them down. The second term of the Syrian president will be over in 2014. This year Syria expects regional and parliamentary elections. Some Syrians believe that this is a golden opportunity for change and a peaceful transition to democracy. Assad is standing in front of a fateful choice - either become the next Mubarak, or the next Qaboos. It's up to him.
(no subject)
Date: 21/3/11 14:50 (UTC)the demise of Syria's dictatorship for a very, very long time.)
(no subject)
Date: 21/3/11 15:08 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/3/11 18:23 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/3/11 18:25 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/3/11 16:01 (UTC)Whether or not he can keep doing this......as with the Spartans the key word is "If."
(no subject)
Date: 21/3/11 19:13 (UTC)I actually do hope it goes that far, and I'm going to be super duper depressed if the US backs the saudi royal family who we unfortunately have close ties to. It would put us in a sticky situation no matter what we do.
How Libya turns out is going to have either a huge damping effect on this democracy movement or its going to have an amplification effect.
(1)
Date: 21/3/11 19:44 (UTC)(TL/DR, OMGZ!)
I say, dont write him off so soon. You might as well win your beers, after all :)
The old Assad (the lion of Damascus) was known for being a smart strategist talented in pulling strings, but also mercilessly persecuting his opponents. He was considered the father of the nation, bringing it to new levels of sovereignty by preaching Arab secularist socialist nationalism (Baath) and leading it on its own path. He built his power base on the military and the secret services, transforming an ethnically diverse state into a self-confident nation. He was himself member of a minority so he knew a thing or two about discrimination. When he became ruler, he started to empower the small rural communities at the expense of the mainly Sunni urban educated middle classes, so he became very popular.
When he died, the whole nation mourned. They were expecting the eldest son Basil to become president, but he died in a car accident, and Bashar had to scrap his ophthalmologist education in UK to take the baton. His father had been smart enough to clear the way for his successor, making sure that all powerful figures in the elite were removed and only the most loyal ones remained. They welcomed Bashar with open arms and he was elected on a staged election with a 97% majority.
Bashar was seen as a welcome consensus candidate for most, although he was young and inexperienced. First thing he had to do was to liberate himself from the influence of the old power structures and build his own circle. Syria is specific in that its not a tyrannic one-man state like Saddam's Iraq, its an institutionalised oligarchy where you have to manoeuvre between many interests. So you cant just automatically pass power from father to son, like Gaddafi was hoping in Libya. A leader has to build their own power base and earn the respect and trust of the elite if he's to rely on them. He had to demonstrate leadership skills which he apparently didnt have, so when put in a complicated situation like this, he had to go beyond his own capabilities to achieve something.
He bet on the popular support. He introduced a new, modern approach to contact with his people. He was a modern, Western-bred person, he's an internet junkie, he made internet available to the populace and allowed satellite TV and private media. He was doing his best to be "the man of the people". He'd go among people, talk with them, answer questions. His first lady Asma, unlike his mother who barely appeared anywhere publicly, became a prominent public figure and a major advocate for combating poverty. She embarked on many social programs and initiatives. She became known internationally as a sophisticated and smart lady, much akin to Queen Rania of Jordan.
...
(2)
Date: 21/3/11 19:45 (UTC)So, all in all, Bashar introduced a brand new approach to doing politics, a more open face in front of his people, and he became a distinct leader, very different from his father. He's no idiot like Gaddafi, and neither is he a monster like Saddam. He's a reasonable person who knows how to listen and how to explain things in a simple way, and how to go straight to the core of an issue. Any interview would reveal this within just a couple of minutes. Unlike his father who constantly used to lecture people on history, Bashar is able to conduct a coherent conversation. And this approach to politics has gradually "trickled down" throughout the whole system, becoming a norm for most government officials in Syria.
But thats only half of the story.
On the other hand, he remained conservative in regards to domestic politics. Changes and reforms remained rare in Syria. While he established himself as a young and open president, the ultra powerful secret services kept silencing his critics behind the scenes. The Baath party has been ruling since independence day, and the state of emergency has stayed since 1963 like you said, overruling regular laws and resulting in arbitrary decisions and political persecution.
But still, Assad is in a position to make changes. Because the era of the "old guard" is fast coming to an end. Its only in the recent few years that the president has demonstrated that he's really in charge of things. He has started making decisions clearly in defiance of the council and against the interests of the elite apparatchiks. Perhaps this has angered some of them, and perhaps they're plotting against him from behind the scenes, and stirring the waters. So if he falls, it won't be really the people who'd bring him down. It'd be his own party, the old guard. And what would follow would not be a democracy, but a change to the worse. So lets hope it doesn happen, and that he prevails in this struggle behind the scenes.
There are some good hopes for Assad right now. He has started a process of introducing a new, younger generation of government reps and has started filling key positions in the regime with guys he can truly trust and who share his views. RIght now he needs those people urgently at his side to push through the overdue economic and social reforms. And the good signs come from the fact that in recent years he has managed a couple of crises and resisted pressure from abroad, both from the West and East.
But first and foremost, he has to remember the reason he stood for presidency in 2000, and it was the task of modernising his country. THAT will be the real test for Assad and his leadership skills.
Re: (2)
Date: 21/3/11 20:40 (UTC)And I'm glad I might as well end up winning a few cool beers from ya. I've got some new braai recipes handy, just in case.
Re: (2)
Date: 21/3/11 23:36 (UTC)They could always just fall back on precedent.
Date: 22/3/11 02:26 (UTC)Re: They could always just fall back on precedent.
Date: 22/3/11 07:10 (UTC)Of course if Germany were to join the operation in Libya, there'd be instantly people calling back the memories of Rommel the Desert Fox, amirite? After all, precedents tend to haunt you till kingdom come.
(no subject)
Date: 22/3/11 22:34 (UTC)Eventually the new government gave in to the demands and a new prime minister Beji Caid-Essebsi was appointed by the acting president on Thursday March 03, 2011. (wikipedia)
Appointed. Yep, sounds like that's a done deal.
Any other revolts having some effects? Besides people dying? No?
I see no domino blocks at all.