Bachmann as President?

[montanaisaleg.livejournal.com]

It's looking more likely that Michelle Bachmann will run for President. If she does run, and especially if Huckabee and Palin don't, I think Bachmann's got a very good chance to win the nomination. The analysts all seem to think that Romney is the front-runner, or that Pawlenty has a good chance at it, but I think those analysts are crazy. Romney's got Romney-care. Pawlenty doesn't have the dyed-in-the-wool conservative reputation. There's also Gingrich, but he's got lots of baggage, not least of which is his quintessential insider status. Maybe Santorum has a chance, but he doesn't seem to excite the base like Bachmann does.

Problem for Republicans is that while Bachmann may be a good primary candidate, she'd likely be a terrible general election, nation-wide candidate. Democrats would be very motivated at the thought of a Michelle Bachmann administration, and I think it's fair to say that her style and politics don't tend to go over well with independents. I think Obama would love to have her as his opponent.

With all the necessary caveats, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that if Bachmann runs, she wins the nomination, and Obama wins a second term.

Comments

[fizzyland.livejournal.com]

Wow that is a terrible list of candidates. Bachmann is a complete nutcase however, I think you overestimate her chances.

[montanaisaleg.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I think she's crazy, but I thought Christine O'Donnell was crazy too. If the primaries are anything like Republican primaries were last year, the person who's supported most ardently by the Tea Party will have a leg up. And considering the possibly insurmountable negatives of most of the other candidates, I think she could pull it off.

[rasilio.livejournal.com]

I think it is safe to say, the more socially conservative the Republicrat nominee is, the higher Obama's odds of winning a second term rise.

If they nominate any of the following then his reelection is all but assured short of them catching him getting a blow job from a 10 year old male hooker.

Bachmann
Palin
Huckabee
Gingrich
and I haven't heard a lot of talk about him but I know some Republicrats prefer him so I'll throw in Jeb Bush

[hey-its-michael.livejournal.com]

Jeb Bush

He actually strikes me as having a better than decent chance of challenging President Obama, unless being the fellow brood of George Bush hurts his chances too much.

[gunslnger.livejournal.com]

short of them catching him getting a blow job from a 10 year old male hooker.

I'm sure that can be arranged...

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

Michelle Bachmann is not going to get the nomination. Won't happen.

[montanaisaleg.livejournal.com]

I won't be surprised one bit if I'm wrong. At this point it's really too early to tell, but predictions are more fun than not-predictions.

[box-in-the-box.livejournal.com]

Maybe Santorum has a chance

Not as long as Google exists. Even among the far right, the fact that his name has literally been turned into an obscenity would be an embarrassment.

[montanaisaleg.livejournal.com]

Yeah, it's a big "maybe."

[xforge.livejournal.com]

I think if Bachmann wins the nomination they should be forced to change their name to the LOL Yeah Right Party.

[dwer.livejournal.com]

It would be awesome. They'd have a GOP candidates debate, and the moderator would ask "do you believe in evolution." After all 356 of them said "no", Bachmann would want to burn the moderator at the stake for suggesting heresy.

[fizzyland.livejournal.com]

Our Zombie Founding Fathers, who worked tirelessly to end slavery, approve this message, want moar brains!

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Um, Rand Paul?

/screams and runs away/

[montanaisaleg.livejournal.com]

Heh. He'd have a better chance than his dad.

[box-in-the-box.livejournal.com]

Basically, I see there being one of two possibilities:

1. A zealous social conservative gets the nomination and ensures Obama's re-election.

2. A relative social moderate (and fiscal conservative) gets the nomination, because all the social conservatives split that portion of the primary vote enough that the one social moderate candidate gets the win by default, ironically enough, as a direct result of being the least popular candidate. To overcome this deficit of credibility with the base, the social moderate starts tacking right on social issues and touting their fiscal conservatism, and might even tap a social conservative as their running mate. This ensures that a candidate who might have appealed to moderates enough to be electable will lose to Obama.

This is basically the 1984 election season with the parties reversed.

[udoswald.livejournal.com]

An addition to 2 would be the likely third-party run by the tea party candidate if a "moderate" (meaning not tea party approved) Republican runs. Regardless of whether the establishment Republican runs to the right or stays "center" (far right-wing anywhere else in the world) this will likely ensure a Democratic victory.

[kinvore.livejournal.com]

I wouldn't assume Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee at this point either. He's pissing off his base by his constant pandering to the right.

If the economy turns around by next year (that's a big if) then yeah he has a good chance, otherwise he needs to grow a pair and start standing up for those who voted for him.

[montanaisaleg.livejournal.com]

There's no way Obama won't be the nominee unless for some very unexpected reason he decides not to run.

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

I believe poorly of the current Republican Party.

I choose not to believe THAT poorly.

[debergerac.livejournal.com]

doesn't matter who the republicans run. obama's reelection is in the hands of the economy.

[mijopo.livejournal.com]

I disagree, if the economy is still fair to middlin' the quality of the candidate will mean a lot. If it sucks, he can still beat Palin, though.

[devil-ad-vocate.livejournal.com]

I think Congressman Michael Turner of Ohio would be a good running mate for Bachmann. The GOP could really really get into overdrive.

[gunslnger.livejournal.com]

I think Pawlenty's got a much better chance than Bachmann.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

With such glorious ads (http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/377119/march-10-2011/colbert-pac-ad), he's definitely gonna be the next president.

[vnsplshr.livejournal.com]

"I think Bachmann's got a very good chance to win the nomination."

No chance in hell.

[mylaptopisevil.livejournal.com]

Christie won't win unless moderates display a massive anti-union mindset in 2012. Berating and mocking constituents who have a problem with you works great up until you actually have to debate ideas with a fully prepared opponent.

[headhouse.livejournal.com]

I'm still hoping for Schwarzenegger. Just for the entertainment value.

[teleens-journal.livejournal.com]

I feel as though every time I look in Michelle Bachman's eyes, I can see the back of her skull, so the thought of her with her finger anywhere near THE Button makes me nearly incoherent with terror.

The only good thing about her running is if she does so, she'll ensure that Obama wins.

[farchivist.livejournal.com]

If Bachmann wins the nomination, maybe I'll actually get my wish of seeing her declare herself "The Teapot Supreme" and ordering her Bags to deploy the Leaf Squadrons to their takeover positions. Sad that it will never happen. It would make for great theatre.

Whoever wants to win will need to get the support of the independents, who are centrist. If a social conservative gets nominated, the economic conservatives will not support, and vice versa. The two remaining factions of the conservative branch are irreconcilable now that the neo-cons are out of power. Romney would be the best appeal to moderates, but he'll never get the support of the Jesus People because he's a Mormon and Romneycare means that the economic conservatives would like to see him gutted on an altar to the Invisible Hand. Pawlenty is interesting, but from what I've heard of him down here is not encouraging; people seem to think that his relationship with Jesus is not strong enough.

[meus-ovatio.livejournal.com]

Everybody who posted before me is wrong. There is a fundamental misunderstanding of how identity politics work here.

The Republicans will have a candidate, whomever it is, whatever their position.

And that Candidate will be the Next Conservative Hero Just Like Reagan, regardless of the truth.

They will even do a 180 on some things, and nobody will act like it happened. I mean, come on people, look at the GOP today and look at it under Bush II. Ideology doesn't matter. Identification either as a Good Person or a Bad Person is all that matters. Policy is filler, fodder and irrelevant.

I have spoken. Thus it is, and so it shall be.

[dreadfulpenny81.livejournal.com]

I was watching Lawrence O'Donnell's show a few nights ago and he commented on George Will's analysis of who would be the most viable candidates and said Tim Pawlenty was the most likely best choice because of the lack of "baggage". Bachmann and Palin are sharing a brain, so I pray to God neither one of them gets the nomination. Even if Pawlenty isn't a dyed-in-the-wool Conservative, I still think he has a good chance because of his lack of controversy.

Here's the video link in case anyone wants to see it themselves: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxJuvsEsm_Q

[404.livejournal.com]

I'd rather have someone like Marco Rubio or Chris Christie run personally.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

And she can't even remember the state the American Revolutionary War began in, no less. I suppose I shouldn't bring this up, but why does the contemporary Christian-Teeper Right love guys like Jefferson, who deleted the supernatural stuff from the Bible and who considered liberty to be "when the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest" and Thomas Paine, that damned bomb-throwing socialist? Shouldn't Bachmann and their ilk be advocating support for the divinely sanctioned monarchy of George III?